AUM
AMERICA FOR PEACE IN AFPAK
By Brigadier(Retd) Chitranjan Sawant,VSM
AMERICA FOR PEACE IN AFPAK
By Brigadier(Retd) Chitranjan Sawant,VSM
America has not forgotten its old friend, the late Hosni Mubarak who had ruled Egypt with an iron hand putting leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood and Salafist in prison . But times have changed. The Arab Spring brought up new leaders whom Arabs like and love too. We know that 25 per cent of all Arabs live in Egypt. So, Egypt matters.
The Obama Administration realised, that there was no point in backing the discredited generals loyal to the Mubarak regime as giving them arms would amount to pouring US dollars down the drain.
Consequently the Americans are now talking to the new Egyptian President, Mohammad Morsi of Muslim Brotherhood who was put in prison by Hosni Mubarak for his Islamist views and anti-American tirades.
Morsi has changed too. His education in California long ago and a study of global perspective helped him realise that the Art of Diplomacy means knowing and pracising concept of Compromise. He did not let the orthodox Islamist theory of keeping the Western world out of a bon-homie foreign policy. It is he who extended the hand of friendship to the United States and Obama was wise enough not to spurn the offer.
Now Obama and Morsi are happily smoking the Peace Pipe and the commerce between the two countries is growing.
Of course, it took a lot of convincing of boys back home in Washington DC to realise that the winds blowing from banks of the Nile was a changed one. There is now fragrance of peace and democracy. The days of oligarchy and aristocracy are gone, perhaps forever. Moreover, America has nothing to fear by befriending Arabs. The old rival, Soviet Union has disappeared from the global stage and its substitute, Russia is too involved internally in Chechnya and in building its economy to interfere with American plans of befriending Egypt.
WILL MIDDLE-EAST
BENEFIT
Is this new policy of Obama
Administration likely to be extended to the entire Arab world? Well, even
President Obama is not sure about it and that too in the election year. His
supporters predict his victory at the hustings but his rival candidate his not
sitting idle. The last wo debates gave the incumbent President a thumbs up but
that is not enough to say that his success in getting a second term in the
White House is a sure shot.
Be that as it may, left to himself,
Obama would like to carry on with the Peace plan in the Middle-East and
befriend the entire Arab world. The specialists on Anarchy and Terror have
realised that keeping the have-nots at arm’s length is just driving them into
the arms of active insurgency and Osama bin-Laden style terrorism. So, the
terror-specialists are of the opinion that keeping the Arabs out of the tent is
potentially dangerous. So why not give them an elbow room inside the tent and
keep your areas of interest out of harm’s way.
Indeed most of the Arab world is in
turmoil at present. Syria and lebanon may be left to fend for themselves. The
royal houses of Saudi Arabia and Jorden stand beholden to the United States for
stability and are prepared to enlarge their shopping list on cash payment in
hard currency to make America the sole beneficiary. Thus it would be in
America’s interest, financial and political, to maintain status quo there.
One may safely predict
that the insurgents and terrorists would not like to launch a frontal attack on
positions where they are most likely to burn their fingers.
AFPAK POST 2014
Turning our attention to Afghanistan and Pakistan post 2014
when the bulk of the NATO forces would have returned home leaving Afghans to
fend for themselves, we find that there is a likelihood of complete chaos and disorder prevailing all
around. This prediction is not a product of a pessimist guiding a group
discussion and forcing a line of action as per his pessimistic thought and the
resultant action thereof. Indeed the American military strategists who had
whole heartedly supported the line of action being pursued by President Barrack
Obama wherein he had made a two-stage plan to be followed by action, have now
no intention of eating the crow by revising the strategy in Afghanistan in the closing months of the decade long disastrous campaign
that cost Uncle Sam rather dearly in terms of men, money and material.
Now it is too late to analyse afresh the final military plan of the US armed forces
that carried the stamp of approval and it meant SURGE NATO TROOPS, DISSIPATE THE TALIBAN AND
THEREAFTER WITHDRAW FOREVER. Well the Surge went off well, although it did not
reach the optimum number. Nevertheless, the Dissipation of the Taliban remained
a Distant Dream. The planned Withdrawal of the NATO forces is proceeding as per
plan. The first and the third parts of the plan are fine but it is the botched
up Second part of defeating the Taliban that did not take off the ground and is
staring the NATO commanders in the face, rather menacingly.
The NATO top commanders have to translate their sound plans
into action on ground to avoid a Vietnam-type
fiasco that overwhelmed a proper military withdrawal from Saigon, now Ho Chi
Minh City forcing the American GIs to run helter- skelter. The closing months,
nay weeks of war on Terror in Afghanistan needs be kept under firm control and
not let Islamic guerillas go berserk. The best weapon to subdue the Islamist
troops is a liberal use of flame throwers or any other gun or howitzers that
might burn the Taliban troops beyond recognition. The moment massive attack by
flame throwers is in evidence, the Taliban
terrorists run helter-skelter so that their bodies are NOT burnt beyond
recognition. In case their bodies are burnt completely, they would not be recognized
on the Day of Judgement when Allah dispenses justice for the life thereafter.
CONTROL & CONTAIN PAKIS
It is wily Pakis that have been the major source of trouble for the NATO in Afghanistan.
Their military commanders have a suppressed desire to rule Afghanistan from the
capital of Pakistan’s capital, Islamabad. They have their eyes fixed on the
battle scenario post 2014 when the NATO, read Americans, would be gone for
good. Then the Pakis would let loose their cruel forces to maim and kill
fiercely independent Afghans and hold their sway from Oxus river (Amu Darya) in
the North to the Hindu Kush mountains in the South-East and Kandahar in the
South-West. They had tasted the fruit of their imperial designs when the USSR
had withdrawn from Afghanistan lock stock and barrel after a decade long strife
against the Mujahideens.
It is time the United States built an international opinion
against Pakistan ruling the roost in Afghanistan. Indeed that would be
disastrous for the global peace process and a booster for the Islamist terror
movement at an international level.
Admiral Mike Mullen, now retired, had gone on record to say
that Pakistanis are liars and must not be trusted. The Admiral was of the
opinion that Pakis bite the hand that feeds them and who else could have a more
bitter experience in this regard than the United States of America.
The United States of America owes it to the posterity NOT to
let history repeat itself in the AFPAK region lest the Islamic Taliban
terrorist hatch their evil plans there to destabilize the Free Democratic
World.
Postal Address:
Brigadier Chitranjan Sawant,VSM (Retd), UPVAN 609, Sector 29, NOIDA INDIA.